The capacity to foresee the future would be an incredible superpower. At AWS, we can’t give you that, but we can help you use machine learning to forecast time series in a few steps.
The goal of time series forecasting is to predict future values of time-dependent data such as weekly sales, daily inventory levels, or hourly website traffic. Companies today use everything from simple spreadsheets to complex financial planning software to attempt to accurately forecast future business outcomes such as product demand, resource needs, or financial performance.
These tools build forecasts by looking at a historical series of data, which is called time series data. For example, such tools may try to predict the future sales of a raincoat by looking only at its previous sales data with the underlying assumption that the future is determined by the past.
This approach can struggle to produce accurate forecasts for large sets of data that have irregular trends. Also, it fails to easily combine data series that change over time (such as price, discounts, web traffic) with relevant independent variables like product features and store locations.
Introducing Amazon Forecast
Amazon has been solving time-series forecasting challenges across multiple areas including retail, supply chain, and server capacity for over two decades. Using machine learning techniques we have learned from this experience, today we are introducing Amazon Forecast, a fully managed deep learning service for time-series forecasting. Amazon Forecast packages our years of experience in building and operating scalable, highly accurate forecasting technology into an easy-to-use and fully-managed service.
You can use Amazon Forecast to generate predictions on time-series data to estimate:
Amazon Forecast is designed with these three main benefits in minds:
Using Amazon Forecast
When creating forecasting projects in Amazon Forecast, you primarily work with the following resources:
You can use Amazon Forecast with the AWS console, CLI and SDKs. For example, you can use the AWS SDK for Python to train a model or get a forecast in a Jupyter notebook, or the AWS SDK for Java to add forecasting capabilities to an existing business application.
Pricing and Availability
With Amazon Forecast, you pay only for what you use. There are three different types of costs in Amazon Forecast:
As part of the AWS Free Tier, for the first two months after first using Amazon Forecast, you have no charge for:
Amazon Forecast is available in preview in the following regions: US East (Northern Virginia), US West (Oregon).
It has never been so easy to do time-series forecasts with high accuracy. I really look forward to seeing what our customers are going to build with this!
Source: AWS News